| A new data shows that the global AIDS pandemic will cause a sharp drop in life expectancy in dozens of countries, in some cases, declines of three decades. Several nations are losing a century's progress in extending the length of life. Nations in every part of the world, 51 in all, are suffering declining life expectancies because of an increasing prevalence of HIV infection. The increase is occurring in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean, but is greatest in sub-Saharan Africa, a region with only 10% of the world's population but 70% of the world's HIV infections. Seven African countries have life expectancies of less than 40 years. For example, in Botswana, where 39% of the adult population is infected with HIV, life expectancy is 39 years. But by 2010, it will be less than 27 years. Without AIDS, it would have been 44 years. Life expectancy throughout the Caribbean and some Central American nations will drop into the 60's by 2010, when they would otherwise have been in the 70's without AIDS. In Cambodia and Burma, they are predicted to decline to around 60 years old,to what otherwise would have been in the mid-60's. Even in countries where the number of new infections is dropping, such as Thailand, Uganda, and Senegal, small life expectancy drop is forecast. Back in the early 1990's, we never would have suspected that population growth would have turned negative because of AIDS mortality. In less than 10 years, we expect that 5 countries will be experiencing negative population growth because of AIDS mortality, including South Africa, Mozambique, Lesotho, Botswana and Swaziland. |
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